V3.5 TOURNAMENT RATING REPORT - TERMINATION DUST 2026 2026 TERMINATION DUST SECTIONAL - ANCHORAGE Event dates: 2026-09-09 through 2026-09-13 TOURNAMENT SUMMARY Players seen 43 Pairs seen 41 Scoring fields 11 Pair observations 81 PREDICTION RMSE MAE MSE SKILL CAL SLOPE v3.5 Model 5.695 4.631 36.5% 1.050 v3.4.1 Legacy 5.662 4.597 37.2% 1.013 Null (50%) 7.147 5.759 TOP 10 ESTABLISHED PLAYERS BY RATING RK PLAYER PRE POST PERF 1 Douglas Dorland 1810 1809 1806 2 Jenni Carmichael 1758 1799 1994 3 Edward Rais 1679 1716 1798 4 Robert Hill 1713 1715 1724 5 Richard Oldford 1702 1705 1712 6 Gregory Svendsen 1695 1691 1649 7 Mark Desinger 1651 1686 1809 8 Michael Schmahl 1685 1679 1649 9 Martin Hrachovy 1632 1636 1677 10 Sandra Singleton 1625 1631 1652 TOP 10 ESTABLISHED PAIRS BY RATING RK PARTNERSHIP PRE POST PERF 1 Mary Knopf - Richard Oldford 1663 1661 1659 2 Monica Roberts - Robert Hill 1656 1659 1671 3 Martin Hrachovy - Linda Thies 1647 1652 1694 4 Gregory Svendsen - Terry Sappah 1629 1623 1583 5 Sandra Singleton - Linda Thies 1601 1607 1656 6 Michael Schmahl - Donald Bladow 1637 1602 1363 7 M Carol Coyle - Linda Thies 1581 1586 1609 8 Duff Pfanner - John Cacy 1603 1578 1437 9 Francis Wallis - Leone Garrett 1545 1533 1458 10 Donald Bladow - Carolyn Sprague 1495 1494 1472 TOP 10 PERFORMING PLAYERS Minimum 2 rated tournament sessions RK PLAYER SESS Ω PERF 1 Jenni Carmichael 3 2.42 1994 2 Robin Phillips 3 2.37 1859 3 Mark Desinger 6 4.62 1809 4 Douglas Dorland 6 4.62 1806 5 Edward Rais 6 4.62 1798 6 Robert Hill 4 3.01 1724 7 Richard Oldford 6 4.62 1712 8 Mark Fisher 2 1.62 1693 9 Martin Hrachovy 2 1.62 1677 10 Glenn Wright 2 1.62 1670 TOP 10 PERFORMANCES RK DATE EVENT SESS PARTNERSHIP ACT PERF 1 2026-09-12 Sat Open Pairs S1 Michael Schmahl - Mark Desinger 68.59 2079 2 2026-09-12 Sat Open Pairs S2 Robin Phillips - Edward Rais 62.80 1970 3 2026-09-09 Wed Open Pairs S1 Jenni Carmichael - Edward Rais 62.50 1950 4 2026-09-10 Wed Open Pairs S2 Jenni Carmichael - Edward Rais 60.42 1886 5 2026-09-12 Sat Open Pairs S2 Michael Schmahl - Mark Desinger 59.23 1863 6 2026-09-12 Sat Open Pairs S2 Douglas Dorland - Richard Oldford 61.61 1850 7 2026-09-11 Fri Open Pairs S2 Terry Sappah - Robert Hill 59.92 1832 8 2026-09-11 Fri Open Pairs S2 Jenni Carmichael - Shannon Deike 59.67 1824 9 2026-09-09 Wed Open Pairs S1 Linda Thies - Martin Hrachovy 59.23 1823 10 2026-09-12 Sat Open Pairs S1 Robin Phillips - Edward Rais 59.61 1810 ANCHORAGE COHORT RATING DRIFT Weighted by η⁽⁻⁾Ω PLAYERS PRE PERF PERF-PRE POST POST-PRE 41 1534.7 1533.8 -0.9 1535.0 +0.3 ANCHORAGE RATING FLOW Anchorage players 41 Rating potential exported 21.97 sa Starting player weight 21.745 sa/r Net elevation change -1.01 r NOTES PRE and POST are immediately before the first and after the last tournament appearance. Pair PERF = field mean partnership PRE + 30 * (ACT - 50). Player PERF = pair PERF + player PRE - partnership PRE. Ω is cumulative tournament information weight; multi-session PERF is the Ω-weighted mean of session PERF. Prediction diagnostics are not Ω-weighted; MSE skill is relative to the 50% null, and calibration slope 1.000 is ideal. Top 10 Performing Players requires 2 rated sessions; Top 10 Performances has no eligibility minimum. Anchorage classification uses pre-tournament in-person history: Anchorage appearances must exceed non-Anchorage appearances; BBO appearances are neutral. For cohort drift, PRE, PERF, and POST use PRE η⁽⁻⁾Ω weights. PERF-PRE compares tournament performance with entering rating; POST-PRE is realized model drift. Rating-potential flow is sum[omega * (ACT - EXP)] over Anchorage player-observations, in sa. The net elevation change divides potential flow by the frozen PRE player-weight sum[100 / K_R(eta_PRE)]. Swiss-team sessions are outside the MP-pair rating model and are excluded.